The 2024 election cycle is already underway, with the Democratic and Republican parties gearing up to see who their nominees will be. As the only two major political forces in the U.S., the competition to win the presidency will be fierce. With this in mind, savvy political observers are watching very closely to see which way the wind is blowing.
What are the strong indicators we should be looking for? While the polls and pundits will certainly offer some insight, there are more reliable signs that can give us an indication of who will take the White House in 2024.
The first indicator is what is happening in the state legislatures across the country. For the most part, the Republican Party has maintained a majority in legislative chambers throughout the country. However, in the 2020 election, Democrats made inroads in many states and now hold the majority in a handful of legislatures. If we see more Democratic victories in upcoming state and local elections, then it could be signaling a potential shift in the Electoral College.
Another indicator is the economy. While there are many factors that will shape the economy leading up to the election, there are certain indicators that could give us an idea of who may be favored in the race. The stock market is one of the most important indicators, as it reflects business and consumer confidence in the U.S. economy. If we see a sustained period of strong growth, it could bode well for the Republican Party in 2024.
Finally, we should be keeping an eye on the major issues that dominate the public discourse. 2020 saw a wide range of high-profile issues garner national attention, from racial justice to health care reform. While the exact issues that will play into the 2024 election can’t be predicted, whatever emerges as the most contentious topics could indicate which party holds the advantage.
By keeping our eye on the above indicators, we should be able to get a good idea of who is likely to be favored in the 2024 election. With the sheer number of candidates already emerging, the battle for the White House will certainly be an interesting one to watch.