The stock market can be a fickle beast that is capable of extreme highs and lows. Every investor and trader faces the worry of a possible market crash. The market crash of 2008 is a treasured memory for some investors and traders who have seen their portfolios evaporate due to such a market crisis. With that in mind, the potential for another market crash needs to be assessed with careful consideration.
Fortunately, there is data that can be used to focus on the possibility of a market crash, and the data in this case paints a more positive picture. The data in this case focuses on a specific indicator, the skew, which looks at the relationship between stock options.
The skew is an important indicator because it measures how likely options traders think a crash or an explosive surge is likely to occur. When the skew is elevated, it can mean that traders are particularly worried and the options markets are seeing an increase in demand for both put and call options. When the skew is low, it means that traders are less worried about an unexpected event, and the market may be more insulated from volatility.
The good news is that when we look at the market as a whole, the current skew is at the lowest level it has been in several years, which means that traders don’t appear to be worried about the prospects of a market crash. This low skew indicator suggests that there are no signs of a major crash on the horizon in the near future.
It’s important to point out, however, that these indicators don’t necessarily predict the future and that there are no guarantees. Even with the low skew suggesting that the chances of a crash are low, a crash can still happen at any time. As investors and traders, it’s always important to stay vigilant and be aware of the potential risks involved in investing.
In conclusion, the chances of a market crash this year appear slim if we look at the skew indicator, which currently suggests that the chances of such an event are close to zero. Investors and traders must still watch for any signs of potential changes and remain aware of the potential risks that come with investing.